Are opinion polls accurate?

Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. Im Neil.

Sam

And Im Sam. Predicting future is not easy but thats exactly the job of opinion pollsters  � researchers who ask people questions to what they think about certain topics. Often their aim is predicting which political party will win in election by members of the public how they intend to vote.

Neil

But predicting the future is never one hundred accurate, and opinion polls dont always get it right. In 2016, few pollsters predicted a victory for Donald Trump Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election.

Sam

And in the 2020 US elections, most polls predicted Trump lose to Joe Biden by a much larger amount than he actually did. These mistakes, sometimes called misfires --when do not work in the way intended - have damaged the reputation of opinion pollsters. In this programme well taking a look into the opinion polling industry and, of course, learning some useful new vocabulary as well.

But first I have a question for you, Sam, and its about another time when the opinion polls got wrong. Few pollsters predicted that Britain would vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum which, the end, it did. But what was the final split between those who voted to leave and those who to remain? Was it:

a) 51 leave to 49 remain?

b) 52 leave to 48 remain?

c) 52 remain to 48 leave?

Sam

I think it was b) 52 percent voted to leave and 48 percent to remain.

Neil

OK, , Ill reveal the answer at the end of the programme.

Sam

One of the biggest polling companies was by George Gallup. Born in 1901 on a farm in Iowa, Gallup was a student of journalism. He wanted know peoples opinion on a range of subjects and came up with a simple idea  � why not try them? Heres G Elliot Morris, a data journalist for ‘The Economist’, explaining more to BBC World Service programme, More Less…

G Elliot Morris

And he publishes his dissertation on this - how to measure what people want, . And he gets hired by a much bigger advertising agency in New York called Young and Rubicam. And they give him a blank cheque to do their research, to figure out how to call people, how to talk them, to figure out if they remember or liked a certain product. Basically to figure out early methodologies in . And then by 1931 or so, he's wondering: well, if it works for toothpaste, why not politics?

Neil

Gallup tried to figure out what customers wanted to buy. If you figure something out, you finally understand it find a solution to a problem after thinking about it a lot.

Sam

Later he was hired by New York advertising agency to find out peoples opinion of consumer products like toothpaste and soft drinks. George was a blank cheque  � an unlimited amount of money and freedom to do his job.

Neil

At this , polling was focused on consumer preferences, not politics. But asking people about their political views is a lot more than asking them about toothpaste. Making accurate election predictions depends on polling a sample group of people who accurately the population as a whole. One of the reasons for pollsters failure to predict Trumps election in 2016 is they didnt ask enough white, non-college educated voters.

Sam

So, polling is a very complex process, one which never totally reliable according to G Elliot Morris speaking again here to BBC World Services’, More or Less…

G Elliot Morris

If people were understanding this process, thats generating all the polls, then they would understand polls less precise tools  � tools that definitely cant offer the laser-like predictive accuracy weve come to expect from them, the difference between pollings’’ expectations and performance wouldnt be so stark.

Neil

Opinion polls can estimate the outcome an election but they cant give us laser-like accuracy. If you describe something as laser-like you mean it is accurate and focused, like a laser.

Sam

If people understand how hard it is to predict the future, might be more realistic about how accurate opinion polls can be. Then, differences between a prediction and the final wouldnt be so stark  � obvious and easily visible, or harsh.

Neil

Predicting the future is difficult, otherwise would be a lottery winner by now! Maybe its not opinion polls that are broken but our desire to the future thats the problem. OK, its time to reveal the answer to my question about the Brexit referendum.

Sam

I said the final result was 52 percent for leave and 48 percent for remain.

Neil

Which … the correct answer! and another example of an opinion poll misfire  � a situation where something does not work intended. OK, lets recap the rest of the vocabulary from this programme about opinion pollsters  � people who conduct asking the public their opinion on particular subjects, especially politics.

Sam

If you figure something out, you finally it, or find the solution to a problem after thinking long and hard about it.

Neil

If someone you a blank cheque, you have unlimited money and freedom to complete a task.

Sam

When you describe as laser-like you mean that its very accurate and precise.

Neil

And finally, the adjective stark has several including obvious, harsh and plain. Once again, our six minutes are up. Bye for now!

Sam

Bye!